SIM-GATE
SIM-GATE  

Gasprozessmodell von SIM - GATE für den Energiesektor mit schwerpunkt stadtwerke

Der Trend hin zur Stromerzeugung durch erneuerbare Ressourcen zieht sich laut Manager und Berater Johannes Michael Grothoff nicht zuletzt durch EU-„Strategien“ in die europäischen Mitgliedsstaaten wie die Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Holland, Österreich, Dänemark, Rumänien u.a. durch – Windparks, Photovoltaik- Anlagen usw. kristallisierten sich in diesem Kontext, auch aufgrund der gesetzlich garantierten Erträge, als eine sichere Investitionsmöglichkeit heraus. In Deutschland führte dieser Trend zu massiven Investitionen, mit der Folge, dass kaum noch Projektstandorte zur Verfügung stehen und die Einspeisevergütung für Neuanlagen, z.B. für Photovoltaik-Anlagen bis 10  MW auf 13,5 / KWh1)BMU enorm sank.

 

 

Applications for geothermal energy can be grouped into three main market segments:

market for district heating for urban areas and possibly for villages.

market for thermal applications within the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors

market for power generation connected to the grid in case of high enthalpy sources.

According to the discussion on economic potentials, the top priority is the use of geothermal

sources for thermal applications:

mainly in existing district heating supply system in the cities nearby the geothermal

fields and in new DH schemes for smaller towns and large villages,

thermal applications for industrial or agricultural uses.

Page 15

Summary of Renewable Development – Present Day & Forecast

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Forecast RES Production 1.3% 2.4% 3.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.2% 5.7% 6.0% 6.2% 6.7% 6.8%

Mandatory RES Quota 8.3% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 19.5% 20.0%

Source: - Monsson Alma

Green Certificate Market (Johannes Michael Grothoff)

Our take on the Green Certificate market is related to the supply /demand imbalances between

the demands mandatory quota requirement and the forecast supply of Energy from qualifying

ReneGASPROZESSMODELL VON SIM - GATE FÜR DEN ENERGIESEKTOR MIT SCHWERPUNKT STADTWERKE

Romania market will remain out of reach during the period 2010-2023.

Page 16

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Forecast RES Production 1.3% 2.4% 3.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.2% 5.7% 6.0% 6.2% 6.7% 6.8%

Mandatory RES Quota 8.3% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 19.5% 20.0%

Source: - Monsson Alma

Given the size of the gap between the mandatory renewable energy quotas imposed on energy

market suppliers and the availability of sufficient volumes of Green Certificates to enable the

market suppliers to meet their quota targets and avoid penalties amounting to EUR 100MWh.

We anticipate a hard market in Green certificates until RES production 

Wind

2  till 2017

1  from 2018

Small Hydro Plants (<10MW)

3  for new SHPs

2  for renovated SHPs

Solar PV 6

Biomass & other Biofuels 3

Geothermal 3

Hydrothermal 3

Wave energy 3

Source: - Romanian Energy Laws – 220/2008 & 139/2010

Green Certificate pricing forecast

Future Green Certificate pricing will be influenced by imbalances between established

mandatory supplier RES quotas and the achievement of RES generator targets.

All indications are that Renewable Energy targets of 20% by the year 2020 will fall short by

approximately 60%. Note:- These estimates exclude all energy from Hydro production sources

> 10 MW, whose facilities are not included in the Romanian Renewable Energy targets.

Page 18

National Target Quota for Renewable Energy Production (Excluding large Hydro >10MW)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Forecast RES Production 1.3% 2.4% 3.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.2% 5.7% 6.0% 6.2% 6.7% 6.8%

Mandatory RES Quota 8.3% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 19.5% 20.0%

Source: - Monsson Alma & Romanian Energy Laws – 220/2008 & 139/2010

1. Renewable energy production remains at less than 33% of the National Target

Quota

We forecast that TGC pricing will remain in a band of EUR 48-55.

2. Renewable Energy production > 50% & <65% of the National Target Quota

We forecast that the TGC market will soften slightly to a band of EUR 38-50

3. As Renewable Energy production above 65% of the National Target Quota

becomes closer to the Mandatory quota targets, the TGC market will gradually

soften until 85% of quota when prices may fall to the lower end of the TGC price

range (EUR 27).

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